Denver Metro Real Estate: January Stats Tell a Clear Story

The 7-county metro Denver market just gave us one of the most telling data months in recent memory. Here are the numbers from SMDRA and RE Colorado, and what they actually mean for buyers, sellers, and investors heading into spring.

Three Numbers That Matter Most

1. Closings dropped below 2,000 for the first time in over a decade.

That's not a typo. January marked the first sub-2,000 closing month the metro area has seen in more than ten years. This is a significant threshold, and it signals a market that has meaningfully decelerated from the pace we've grown accustomed to.

2. Months of inventory surged, right on schedule.

If you've been following our market commentary, this one wasn't a surprise. Months of inventory has climbed from December to January each of the last three years, and 2025 continued that trend. The takeaway: inventory is building, and sellers need to adjust expectations accordingly.

3. Pendings bounced back 50% from December.

After December's historically low closings, pending contracts climbed roughly 50% heading into January. That's a normal seasonal recovery, but a welcome sign that buyers are still engaging. Detached homes led the way with pendings up 13%, a trend that's held since January 2024.

The Days on Market Story Your Sellers Need to Hear

This is the stat that matters most right now, and it requires the right lens.

Ignore the month-over-month changes from December to January. Those numbers increase every single year during that transition. The real signal is in the year-over-year and two-year comparisons.

Average days on market (combined) is up 21% from January 2024 and up 50% from two years ago. Median days on market tells the same story: up 22% year-over-year and 51% over two years.

The conclusion is straightforward: this is a buyer's market as of January.

If you're advising sellers, the days of rapid absorption are behind us for now. Pricing strategy and presentation have never been more critical. The positive note: median days on market has historically dropped about 30% from January to February over the last three years. We're watching closely for that seasonal compression.

Pricing: A Split Market

The attached home segment delivered a genuine surprise. Average sold prices on attached homes rose 5.9% from December, and median sold prices followed with a 5% increase. This wasn't a handful of high-end sales skewing the data. The price increases appear broad-based across the attached home market. Year-over-year and two-year gains remain positive for attached homes, which is an encouraging signal.

Detached homes told a different story. Sold prices are down just over 2% year-over-year. Not dramatic, but a data point sellers need to factor into their pricing strategy.

One more note: both the average and median closed-to-original-list-price ratio declined slightly from December to January. That's a departure from the last three years and further confirmation that buyers have leverage right now.

Active Listings: Below Expectations

January's active listing count came in at 7,539. Candidly, I expected us to cross the 8,000 mark. We didn't get there, which suggests some seller hesitation is keeping inventory from accumulating as quickly as it otherwise might.

Fastest and Slowest Markets

Fastest selling cities by median days on market:

Thornton at 36 days, Arvada at 45 days, and Highlands Ranch at 47 days. These communities continue to benefit from strong demand fundamentals and relative affordability within the metro.

Slowest selling cities by median days on market:

Castle Rock led the way at 84 days, followed by Parker at 65 days and Centennial at 55 days. If you're listing in these markets, plan for a longer runway and price accordingly from day one.

The Bottom Line

January's data paints a clear picture: we are firmly in a buyer's market. Inventory is building, days on market are stretching, and pricing power has shifted. That said, pendings are recovering, attached home prices are showing unexpected strength, and the seasonal spring ramp should bring relief to the pace metrics.

For sellers: price it right, present it well, and don't expect 2021 timelines.

For buyers: you have time, you have options, and you have negotiating power. Use it wisely.

For investors: the attached home segment is worth watching closely. Broad-based price appreciation in a slower market is a signal worth paying attention to.

We'll continue tracking these trends monthly and keeping you ahead of the market.